Election Time Again - Jamaica 2011

The Jamaican public goes to the polls in a couple of days time – December 29, 2011 to be exact.

The current Prime Minister of Jamaica is a young man named Mr Andrew Holness of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), not yet 40 years old. He became leader of his party, and therefore the Jamaican Prime Minister, a couple of months ago when the incumbent JLP leader – Mr Bruce Golding - stepped down due to “personal reasons”.
In exiting prematurely Mr Golding in effect anointed the “younger generation” to inherit the leadership role of the party and Mr Holness assumed this position unchallenged (wisely) by his colleagues in the ruling JLP party.

SUCCESSION & SUCCESSS IN JAMAICAN POLITICS
It seemed a familiar old story to Jamaica. Over 5 years ago a one Ms Portia Simpson Miller became Prime Minister of Jamaica in May 2006 through an unelected national process when Mr P J Patterson of the Peoples National Party stepped down after 14 years in power.
However unlike, Mr Patterson who himself was given the mantle of leadership by Mr Michael Manley (who retired due to ill health in 1992) and then went on to win the national elections (not once but 3 times) in 1993 (and subsequently in 1997 & 2002), Ms Portia Miller served 18 months, then called a national election which she lost in September 2007.

So Mr Holness was faced with a similar situation – should he go, more or less, straight to get a mandate from the Jamaican public or should he serve out the remaining 12 months of the JLP’s entitled term and then call the national elections? He chose to go to the polls, which as I write, is imminently upon the nation. Was it the right call for him? Time will tell!!
At the risk of stating things prematurely, the run-up to the elections in Jamaica this time has been markedly peaceful and it seems as though this year has been a turning point in the maturing of the country – at least politically. In hindsight a key milestone could have been the “taking out” of Dudus Coke by the Jamaican army in a gun battle with his supporters in Trench Town. Mr Coke was later captured and extradited to face criminal charges in the USA. Perhaps the other criminal gangs have been sent a message that no one is indispensible and we are at a period of reflection and stock taking on the “contract” between local power brokers – armed and unarmed. Or is Jamaica in the “lull before the storm” which would see the potential emergence of a new criminal order and political dimension?

Some say Mr Golding paid the ultimate political price for that action of confrontation in his own constituency with a leading “don” – although not without great hesitation and anguish on his part, it turned out to be “a selfless act for the greater national good”. National crime rates have been noticeably reduced in the subsequent months of 2011. It seems the USA did Jamaica a favour in forcing through this extradition action.

FUTURE PATHWAYS - THE OPTIONS
So whither goes Jamaica now? On the one hand the existing party came into power during the onset of a terrible global recession and has weathered the storm creditably. The ridiculous high interest rates offered on Government Bond schemes for decades, unsustainably reminiscent of a Ponzi scheme, were cut somewhat (and could do with some further trimming). Crime statistics came down as mentioned above and the national economy even grew. This is more than could be said for the previous administration which, while the world around Jamaica enjoyed a boom fuelled by low interest rates, low fuel costs and emerging Eastern economies (and now a bust), cocooned itself in a nest of economic stagnation for the most part – notwithstanding Highway 2000 and the Spanish Hotel investment programme.

Does the country need change for any particular reason and what will change bring? Change in such poorer developing countries, brought about by elections after a maximum of 5 years, seems very wasteful. It takes a year or 2 for the new Government to shape its initiatives (and put its people in place etc) and then as things start to get going again it is time for another election. (Mind you nothing as daft as the USA elections which are far too frequent and extravagant at 4 years apart).
More recently, as has happened in Trinidad & Tobago, the new Government upon assumption of power appear to set about digging for evidence of corruption and malpractice by its predecessors with which to “sling mud” at them. More time and expense spent on issues, which although important, should not be allowed to happen in the first place. Like a number of other areas of life, globally, it would seem that the structure and operation of electoral politics is antiquated and not fit for purpose. Like existing Education and Health systems, the Political System needs an overhaul - but what to do?

For now back to elections in Jamaica. The historical record shows that the Jamaican electorate usually give the party in power a couple of electoral terms (8-10 years) to prove itself and this is likely to happen again. The only exception to this in 50 years has been Mr P J Patterson who won three elections in a row but he has retired from politics, apparently.

Alas, only time will tell - may the team that is best for Jamaica win!!